Predictions for the Top 100 Baby Names of 2017

Predicting the top 100 baby names for a year is all about trying to figure out which names are coming in and which ones are going out.  The internal results are fun to look at once the new data arrives, but the main goal is to determine what the numbers say about the names on the edge (usually the names between #80 and #120th most-popular, though there’s always some leeway for rising stars and sinking ships).

Looking at the numbers* for names on the edge of the American top 100, I believe that the following girls’ names will enter:

• Emilia (currently #102; +43 rank change) – Rising because of actress Emilia Clarke and the growing popularity of similar Amelia (#11).
  
• Rylee (#105; +16) – When a standard spelling takes off, another version follows.  1403 more girls were named Riley (#22) in 2016 than in 2015, causing a rank increase of +13; a huge jump for any name in the top 50!
  
• Valentina (#106; +8)
  
• Everly (#107; +31)
• Ivy (#112; +17)
  
• Josephine (#114; +17)

Replacing:

• Faith (#100; -9 rank change)
• Brianna (#98; -16)
  
• Taylor (#89; -13)
  
• Mackenzie (#85; -11)
• Aubree (#84; -6) – Aubrey (#25; -4) experienced a significant drop of 850 girls, and Aubree lost 227 from 2015.  In terms of raw numbers, Aubree is currently only 336 girls more popular than the #101 name Ashley.
  
• Kylie (#83; -17)

If I have to suggest some less likely contenders, I’d say Nova (#136; +79), and Teagan (#150; +78).  Those two are rising so quickly they could unseat falling Katherine (#90; -6) and/or Peyton (#81; -9).  Still, Teagan is more of a long shot than Nova, which could definitely crack the top 100 if she does slightly better than her current trajectory.

As for the boys’ names entering:

• Vincent (#104; +5)
• Santiago (#106; +21)
  
• Harrison (#107; +12)
• Everett (#114; +21)
  

Replacing:

• Bentley (#100; -7) – Besides the fact that Bentley ranked #100 in 2016 and is already falling, 2017 saw the resignation of disgraced Alabama governor Robert Bentley.
  
• Brandon (#99; -17)
  
• Tyler (#91; -10)
  
• Kevin (#89; -10)
  

Ezekiel (#121; +27) might also join the top 100, probably at the expense of Ayden (#92; -5), Gavin (#80; -10) or Parker (#87; -15).  Parker‘s descent might be slowed by last year’s Spiderman movie, and based on raw-usage numbers I think Gavin is a more likely exit anyway.  Additionally, Miles (#105; +2) is rising very slowly but could accidentally find himself in the top 100 because some other name fell faster.  Three other possibilities for entry are Cole (#110; +5), Axel (#116; +7), and Maverick (#139; +45), but I don’t really expect them until the 2018 set.

Thoughts?  Agreements, disagreements?  Remember – these are just for fun, something to do while awaiting the new data.  In the meantime, check out my Top 10 Predictions!  I’ll post my speculations for the top 1000 by the end of April.

*Numbers via the 2016 top 1000 lists on Social Security Administration and Behind the Name.