Predictions for the Top 10 Baby Names of 2017

The Social Security Administration is expected to release information about America’s most popular baby names of 2017 sometime in May, and I’m getting so excited!  Just for fun, here are my predictions for the top 10.

I predict that Liam and Olivia will replace Noah and Emma as the #1 names.  Noah could keep his spot because he was still #1 in extremely high-population states like California and Texas in 2016, however…I’m starting to see some turnover.  Liam replaced Noah as the top boys’ name in San Diego, which has already released its 2017 data!  As for Olivia vs. Emma: both Olivia and Emma dropped in raw numbers between ’15 and ’16, though 1,001 fewer babies were named Emma in ’16 than in the previous year (while Olivia only fell by around 400 girls).  Plus, Oliver‘s fast upwards trajectory might help Olivia (similar sounds).

Amelia and Evelyn will probably enter the top 10 for girls, and I suspect they will replace Emily and Abigail; however, I think Abigail is more likely to stay in the top 10 than Emily.  Oliver will probably enter for boys, and Ethan will probably go.  I also suspect Lucas will replace Jacob; 1400 fewer baby boys were named Jacob in 2016 than in 2015, and it’s teetering close enough to the edge that already-rising Lucas (currently #14) will probably surpass him.  The name Lucas also has the benefit of belonging to a main character in a very popular Netflix series – “Stranger Things.”

Here’s what the 2016 top 10 looks like, including rank changes from 2015:

Girls

1. Emma (0; stable)
2. Olivia (0; stable)
3. Ava (+1)
4. Sophia (-1)
5. Isabella (0)
6. Mia (0)
7. Charlotte (+2)
8. Abigail (-1)
9. Emily (-1)
10. Harper (0)

Boys

1. Noah (0; stable)
2. Liam (0; stable)
3. William (+2)
4. Mason (-1)
5. James (+2)
6. Benjamin (+4)
7. Jacob (-3)
8. Michael (+1)
9. Elijah (+2; new)
10. Ethan (-4)

Here’s what I think the top 10 will look like in the 2017 list, with estimated rank changes from 2016:

Girls

1. Olivia (+1)
2. Emma (-1)
3. Ava (0; stable)
4. Charlotte (+3)
   
5. Isabella (0; stable)
6. Sophia (-2); Sophia experienced a large drop of around 1300 girls between ’15 and ’16.  On the other hand, Charlotte gained almost 1700.
   
7. Mia (-1)
8. Amelia (+3; new)
9. Harper (+1)
10. Evelyn (+2; new)
    

Exiting: Emily and Abigail

Runner-up: Abigail

Boys

1. Liam (+1)
2. Noah (-1)
3. William (0; stable)
4. James (+1)
   
5. Benjamin (+1)
   
6. Mason (-2)
   
7. Elijah (+2)
   
8. Oliver (+4; new)
   
9. Michael (-1)
   
10. Lucas (+4; new)
    

Exiting: Ethan and Jacob

Runner-up: Jacob

Do you agree with my predictions, or do you think there’s going to be a different line-up?  Ultimately, we’ll see the results in May…and I do expect surprises.  In the meantime, I’ll continue to post my predictions for the top 100 and top 1000 throughout April.